Ontario Home Prices Continue to Climb in March 2023

Ontario Housing Market Update - April 2023 Newsletter

Ontario Housing Market March 2023 Update

The tides may be beginning to turn in the Ontario real estate market. March 2023 saw a significant decline in residential sales activity, with 15,578 units sold, a 35.6% drop from last year. Compared to previous Marches, home sales dropped 27.1% below the five-year average and 23.9% lower than the 10-year average. But amidst waning sales, a glimmer of hope has emerged: monthly average prices began to rise again.

Over the first three months of 2023, year-to-date home sales reached 34,206 units, reflecting a substantial reduction of 39% compared to the same period in 2022. This decline echoed the national trend, with home sales activity plummeting by 34.4% across Canada.

Ontario Housing Market Prices March 2023The average price of $881,946 was a 16.4% decline, painting the picture of a province navigating the challenges of a shifting real estate market. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price also fell drastically, down 18.6% to $857,704 across January, February, and March, compared to the average of the same three months of 2022.

New residential listings in March 2023 plunged 34.2% compared to March 2022, totalling 26,116. Unfortunately, this was the fewest number of new listings added in March in over two decades. However, active residential listings saw a substantial gain of 45.8%, with 29,474 units at the end of March compared to March 2022.

In March 2023, Ontario's real estate landscape painted a picture of regional disparities, reflecting the diverse market conditions throughout the province. For example, in the Central region, focused around the GTA, 7,244 residential sales marked a sharp 36.7% decline from the previous year, while the average price of $1,123,426 represented a 14.6% drop. Meanwhile, the Eastern region around Ottawa and Kingston saw 1,683 residential sales, a 37% decrease from last year, and an average price dip of 16.2% to $603,355.

In the North-Eastern region, including Barrie and Peterborough, 1,386 residential sales took place, a 34.2% reduction from the previous year, and the average price fell 16% to $761,925. Up a bit further, the Northern region with Sudbury and beyond witnessed 580 residential sales, a 35.4% decline, and the average price decreased by 10.8% to a more modest $368,120.

The Southern region, including Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo, experienced 2,757 residential sales, a 34.3% drop from last year, with the average price plummeting 19.7% to $785,464. Lastly, the Western region, including London and Windsor, observed 1,928 residential sales, a 32.6% decline, with the average price taking a 20.1% hit, settling at $596,651.

In the face of subdued home sales in Ontario, the monthly average price has started to rise, signalling a potential recovery in the market. Will the rising monthly average price serve as a beacon of hope for a market rebound?

*stats and data from LSTARCREATRREBRAHBBDAR, & SARNIA|LAMPTON

GTA Housing Market March 2023 Update

Spring is in the air in Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in March 2023, as the housing market is heating up with the season's change. There was a surge in demand, sparking intense competition among eager buyers. As a result, for the first time since May 2022, the average sale price surpassed the average list price.

There was escalating competition in numerous GTA neighbourhoods throughout the first quarter. However, with high average rents inching closer to homeownership costs, first-time buyers are expected to be the driving force behind the market's recovery as the scales tip towards homeownership as the better investment.

GTA Housing Market Stats March 2023Despite this flurry of activity, GTA REALTORS® reported a 36.5% decrease in sales compared to the peaks we saw in March 2022, totalling 6,896 sales through TRREB's MLS® System. However, both actual and seasonally adjusted sales saw a month-over-month increase. New listings also dipped year-over-year, signalling tighter market conditions than last year.

The market's volatility is reflected in the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark, declining 16.2% year-over-year but increasing month-over-month on actual and seasonally adjusted bases. With the extreme peaks in the market, we saw in early 2022 and rising interest rates, a year-over-year decrease is expected, even in a competitive market. In the same vein, the average selling price dropped 14.6% year-over-year to $1,108,606, although it did experience a month-over-month increase.

TRREB believes lower inflation and financial market uncertainty led to lower fixed rate borrowing costs in March, loosening budgets and allowing more competition into the market. Reduced borrowing means properties are getting more affordable even as tighter market conditions mean higher selling prices.

With the number of homes for sale expected to stay low, there’s some hope for more rental units to be built in coming years to keep rent reasonable. As the GTA real estate market continues to evolve, there continues to be a need for both buyers and sellers to remain vigilant in the dynamic landscape.

LAST 3 Months Average Pricing for GTA

  • March 2023  $1,108,606
  • February 2023  $1,095,617
  • January 2023  $1,036,668

*stats and data from LSTARCREATRREBRAHBBDAR, & SARNIA|LAMPTON

Hamilton Housing Market March 2023 Update

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1,031 sales in March. Although this is a 33% decrease from last year, the activity is slightly slower than pre-pandemic levels. Higher lending rates continue to affect sales activity, although new listings remain lower than typical pre-pandemic March numbers.

Over the past few months, new listing and sales activity have increased, but this has yet to significantly impact supply. Buying conditions have loosened since last year, leading to more stable prices similar to the pre-pandemic market.

Hamilton Housing Markets Stats March 2023Overall, the Hamilton housing market is shifting back to more stable pricing and activity levels similar to those before the pandemic. Despite lower prices than the peaks in 2022, the year-over-year growth last year was over 24%. In addition, the market has seen substantial price growth since 2019, when home prices were under $600,000.

In March, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $835,800, marking the third consecutive month of upward trending prices. The area’s prices are still 21% below last year's levels but remain higher than those reported in March 2021.

Sales and new listings in March improved, aligning with seasonal expectations. However, with 624 sales in the region, the levels are still among the lowest reported in March in the last decade. In March, 928 homes were listed, representing a 40% decline from last year and nearly 22% lower than long-term trends for the month.

After two months of strong monthly price gains, the unadjusted benchmark price in Hamilton slightly decreased over the past month to $770,600, representing a year-over-year decline of 22%. However, prices are comparable to those seen at the end of 2022 and remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

In terms of different property types, each was relatively consistent this month, as sales and new listings reported typical seasonal gains over last month, even though they were below last year's levels. The exception was condos, with new listings considerably higher than long-term trends, likely contributing to sales remaining slightly lower than typically seen in March.

Prices for all property types are lower than last March's record highs. Row properties saw unadjusted benchmark prices rise for three consecutive months, reaching $649,900. Detached prices slightly decreased to $820,600 but remain higher than those reported at the beginning of 2023. Condo prices have trended down for nine consecutive months, reaching $466,700. Despite the declines, the year-over-year price adjustments for this property type are just under 12%, much lower than the over 23% adjustment seen among detached properties.

LAST 3 Months Average Pricing for Hamilton

  • March 2023  $793,241
  • February 2023  $800,584
  • Janurary 2023  $750,529

*stats and data from LSTARCREATRREBRAHBBDAR, & SARNIA|LAMPTON

London/St. Thomas LSTAR Housing Market March 2023 Update

In March 2023, the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR) MLS® System registered 1,079 new residential listings, the third lowest March for new listings in the past decade.

During this month, the region's residential real estate market witnessed a considerable deceleration, reaching a sluggish pace reminiscent of 2014. A meagre 685 homes exchanged hands, marking the lowest number of sales for March in almost ten years.

London Housing Market Stats March 2023As the real estate scales tipped towards scarcity, the sales-to-new listings ratio ascended to 63.5%, and the available inventory shrank from 3 months in February to 2 months in March.

Rising borrowing costs likely drive the market's downturn. Nevertheless, this may present an opportunity for eager buyers to venture into the market at more accessible prices. The limited inventory implies that prices are likely to climb in the upcoming months. During this time, it will be vital to monitor if the market continues its downward trajectory or rebounds with renewed strength.

Despite prevailing economic uncertainty, LSTAR's March data reveals a tightening real estate market, as shown by the region's average and HPI benchmark prices. Compared to March 2022, the average home price and the composite MLS® HPI Benchmark Price experienced considerable declines, decreasing by 20.6% and 23.4%, respectively. However, these figures remain notably elevated in comparison to 2020 and prior years, demonstrating modest month-over-month growth. In March 2023, the average home price was $653,611, while the composite MLS® HPI Benchmark Price amounted to $592,600.

Amongst housing types, single-family homes emerged as the undisputed favourite within LSTAR's jurisdiction, with 497 units finding new owners. Townhouses trailed behind, with 98 units sold, while apartments secured the third spot with 57 units sold.

There was a year-over-year dip in the average price of single-family homes. Yet, they displayed greater resilience compared to other housing categories, with a modest decline of 19.5% in comparison to March 2022. Furthermore, their average price soared to an impressive 48% higher than what was seen in March 2020. The resilience of single-family homes was further exemplified by the MLS® HPI benchmark price, which boasted a 46.5% increase from three years prior.

LAST 3 Months Average Pricing for London & St. Thomas

  • March 2023  $653,611
  • February 2023  $621,912
  • Janurary 2023  $585,252

*stats and data from LSTARCREA, TRREB, RAHB, BDAR, & SARNIA|LAMPTON


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Barrie Housing Market March 2023 Update

As March 2023 drew to a close and winter receded, the Barrie & District real estate market remained dormant. The Barrie & District Association of REALTORS®' MLS® System reported 395 homes sold during the month, signifying a 26.4% decline from the previous year. Sales activity was also stagnant, falling 23.7% below the five-year average and 20.7% below the 10-year average for March.

Barrie Housing Market Stats March 2023The Barrie region real estate market is challenging in the first quarter of 2023. Year-to-date home sales dropped to a mere 841 units; a 34.7% drop compared to the same period in 2022. Both the City of Barrie and the surrounding areas have been hit. The former experienced a 28.1% year-over-year reduction in residential sales activity, amounting to only 194 units in March, while the latter saw a 24.7% plunge in sales activity at 201 units.

This slowdown has affected the entire market, seen in the average price of homes sold in Barrie and the surrounding area falling 19% to $842,335 in March 2023 compared with March 2022. Even when looking at the more comprehensive year-to-date average price, we see a similar trend, a 20.1% reduction down to $838,470. The downward trajectory is affecting both Barrie and its surroundings. In Barrie, the year-to-date average price for homes sold reached $728,387—a 22.8% drop compared to March 2022—and the surrounding area saw a year-to-date average price of $944,694, a 19.1% decline.

Also affected was the overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price in March 2023, which stood at a relatively low $798,200, indicating a 21.2% decline compared to the previous year. This decline was evident across various housing types, with single-family homes facing the steepest drop of 21.1% to $839,000, townhouse/row units slipping by 20.7% to $573,400, and apartment prices decreasing by 16.8% to $534,200.

However, amidst the challenging landscape, there are some signs of optimism. For example, there’s a rebound in sales compared to February. Although new listings lagged historical averages, active listings aligned with long-term trends, indicating a stabilizing market with opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

By the end of March, there were 785 active residential listings, representing a massive 59.2% increase from the same time in 2022. These listings were 5.1% above the five-year average but 7.3% below the 10-year average for the month.

*stats and data from LSTARCREATRREBRAHBBDAR, & SARNIA|LAMPTON

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Sarnia | Lambton Housing Market March 2023 Update

The Sarnia-Lambton real estate market is experiencing a similar slump as the rest of Ontario. March 2023 saw 122 homes sold through the MLS® System, a 20.3% decrease from the previous year. In addition, home sales dipped 16.7% below the five-year average and 19.1% below the 10-year average for the month. Overall, the first quarter of 2023 had a total of 309 home sales, a 12.7% decline compared to the same time last year.

But the news isn’t all bad. Inventory is rising overall, offering buyers more opportunities to secure a good deal and find the perfect property. Indeed, this has led to a buying resurgence, with the month-over-month sales totals rising for four consecutive months.

Sarnia Lambton Housing Market Stats March 2023Within the ever-shifting landscape of Ontario in 2023, the real estate market in Sarnia-Lambton is experiencing a relatively gentle breeze of change. The average home price fell by only 5.8% to $529,740 compared to last year. Even the more comprehensive year-to-date average price slipped by only 11.1% to $503,486 compared to 2022’s year-to-date.

New residential listings were blooming in March 2023, growing at a rate of 7.4% compared to the previous year. A total of 217 new listings came through, the largest number in five years. This puts the number of fresh offerings at 9.2% above the five-year average and 4.8% above the 10-year.

Perhaps even more surprising is the overall flourishing of active residential listings in the area. The area hit 326 units on the market by the end of March, which is more than double the levels from a year earlier. In particular, it’s up 222.8% from March 2022’s numbers, making it the highest number of active listings for the month in over five years. In the broader picture, it’s 63.8% above the five-year average and 13.9% above the 10-year average for the month.

Then, in March 2023, months of inventory rose to 2.7, up from a mere 0.7 months in March 2022. This figure surpassed the long-run average of 2 months for this time of year, reflecting the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the prevailing rate of sales activity.

As the Sarnia-Lambton real estate market gracefully adapted to the shifting tides, potential buyers found themselves with a wider array of options. Nevertheless, the market maintained its balance, poised on the precipice of a new season, with the summer months bringing an air of exciting new possibilities for the region.

LAST 2 Months Average Pricing for SARNIA | LAMPTON

  • March 2023  $529,740
  • February 2023  $487,089

*stats and data from LSTARCREATRREBRAHBBDAR, & SARNIA|LAMPTON


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